本帖最后由 pedro 于 2012-2-29 12:32 编辑
Link between Premier League goalfests and poor European progress of English clubs?
February 28, 2012
The top English clubs continue to perform poorly in Europe, and serve up amazingly open games at the top of the Premier League.
Many have drawn a link between the two. I wrote a column for the Guardian yesterday along these lines:
None of the top sides want to be submissive, to be seen as the underdog and play reactive football. That is the major difference between England and other major European leagues, where the food chain is more established…in England, everyone wants to play (attacking) football…naivety has contributed, a refusal to change strategy to suit the situation…a separate problem for each individual side is the lack of control they are able to exert upon matches…it is this lack of control that is costing English teams in Europe. With a fluid Barcelona side the template for continental success, it’s an inconvenient truth that English clubs perform better in Europe when they are defensive, organised and functional…4.9 goals per game in matches between the top five isn’t indicative of great quality.
Towards the end I touched on a link between goals per game in the Premier League, and English club’s success in Europe:
When the Premier League enjoyed its best run in Europe, between 2004-05 and 2008-09, the goals per game average in the Premier League was down at around 2.5. In the previous five seasons, when England had no European Cup finalists, it was over 2.65. Since 2009, it has risen to 2.8.
I thought this was worth a proper look with the help of some graphs, comparing the openness of Premier League games (making the assumption that this is reflected in the goals per game average) with English club’s progress in Europe this century.
Goals per game was an easy figure to find.
For progress in the Champions League, a simple point scoring system was used:
Champions League winner = 5 points
Champions League runner-up = 4 points
Champions League semi-finalist = 3 points
Champions League quarter-finalist = 2 points
Champions League second round / second group stage = 1 point
No points were awarded if a side didn’t make it out of the group stage.
So, if four English clubs got to the final four (hypothetically, this has never happened), it would be 5+4+3+3 = 15 points. If all four reached the second round, where they were knocked out, it would be 1+1+1+1=4.
Here’s a graph plotting goals per game in the Premier League (blue) against progress in the Champions League (red):
Some points to note here:
(a) If the goals per game average stays the same – it might not – it will be a record this century. Even if it drops slightly, it confirms a medium-term rise.
(b) The English clubs’ increase in performance between 2005-09 was quite staggering.
(c) If Chelsea and Arsenal don’t progress, this is a huge failure by English clubs compared to previous seasons.
(d) Both figures are, obviously, undecided for 2011/12 – current figures are shown. That means English clubs are assumed as 0+0+1+1, with the Manchester clubs eliminated and the English clubs underdogs going into the second leg of the second round.
But variations from season to season make it difficult to find an overall pattern. This is a particular problem with the Champions League progress – after all, this figure is taken from a much smaller sample size, and considering a fair number of points will have been decided by penalty shoot-outs, we can’t take sudden drops or rises too seriously.
Therefore, the next step was to create a three-year average for both figures. So, for example, the 2003-06 period would be an average of the figures from 2003/04, 2004/05 and 2005/06.
This naturally created a smoother line, and a pattern is clearer:
(Note: It’s impossible to create a 2010-13 average with no data from 2012/13, so a two-year average of 2010/11 and 2011/12 was used for the final period)
This tends to suggest there is some kind of relationship – English clubs were doing better in Europe when the rate of goals in the league was very low. Or, if you like, the rate of goals in the league was very low when English clubs were doing better in Europe.
These are basic figures, but it’s probably worth further exploration. |